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·首页 > 房产新闻 > 上半年信贷政策成楼市调控主角 “限贷”政策渐宽松

上半年信贷政策成楼市调控主角 “限贷”政策渐宽松

更新时间:2015-07-04 10:57:36 - 来源:衢州房产网 >> 我要发表评论
  2015年上半年,调控政策的轮番出台激发了房地产市场的活力,楼市逐渐走出低潮期。相比于前几年的“国几条”,行政手段的淡化、信贷杠杆的频繁运用成为今年调控政策的一大特点。“限贷”政策日渐宽松,市民的购房成本逐渐降低,购房意愿也有所提高,使得楼市整体回暖步伐加快。但相较于一线城市,二三线楼市的热度仍不高,6月份仍有46个城市的房价处于下行通道。

  信贷“组合拳”接连出台 “限贷”政策日渐宽松

  在今年的“两会”上,李克强总理提出了“因地制宜,分城施策,鼓励居民自住性住房和改善性住房需求,保持房地产长期平稳健康发展”的大方向,为此,今年上半年的楼市也延续了去年的“去库存”“稳增长”的主基调。

  “两会”之后, 3月30日,中国人民银行、住建部、银监会三部委联合宣布了后来被称为“330新政”的房贷政策,对拥有一套住房且相应购房贷款未结清的居民家庭购买二套房,最低首付款比例调整为不低于40%。公积金贷款首付比例也做出调整,购买首套普通自住房首付最低为20%,对拥有1套住房并已结清相应购房贷款再次公积金贷款的,最低首付款比例为 30%。同日,个人住房转让营业税免征期也由5年改为了2年。

  央行今年还频繁运用信贷杠杆,进行了三次降息和三次降准,五年期以上贷款基准利率由6.15%下调到了5.4%,三次降息的调整幅度达0.75个百分点。多地还积极调整了公积金政策,提高贷款额度、放宽首套房和首改房的认定标准、降低公积金贷款使用门槛等。另外,根据不同情况,多个城市还出台了财政补贴,契税减免和奖励购房等多重措施。

  “之前楼市调控运用的行政手段比较多,今年更多的通过经济、市场化的手段来调节,这也是今年楼市调控的一大亮点”,中国社科院城市发展与环境研究所原所长牛凤瑞在接受中新网采访时表示,行政手段逐渐淡出,回归市场本源,更多的是通过价格杠杆来调节供求关系,这是一个正确的方向,资源的配置效率也会大大加强。

  中原地产首席分析师张大伟也表示,在我国多年房地产发展的过程中,影响房地产价格的主要是经济调控政策,而调控政策中影响力最大的是信贷政策,信贷额度及利率水平可以说是房地产市场的风向标。

  信贷政策持续发酵 一线城市房价上涨但三四线仍在跌

  楼市在多项调控政策叠加作用下,五月、六月也迎来集中“爆发”,尤其是一线城市对于政策的影响变化最为敏感。来自某研究院的数据,上半年,一线城市月均成交量75万平方米,同比增幅超过45%,绝对量也为近年来最高水平,其中6月成交超过100万平方米,同比去年增长近1倍。同时,上半年二线城市月均成交66万平方米,同比增长18.5%,三线城市月均成交量31万平方米,同比增长37.0%。

  牛凤瑞表示,中国楼市在宏观经济大的形势下,政府采取的松绑、利好政策,发挥效力是有时滞性的,从去年 “930新政”后到今年四五月份,效力逐渐显现,但总体来看,楼市已步入复苏通道。

  房价方面,2015年上半年百城均价由跌转涨,3、4月跌幅持续收窄,5月均价转为上涨,6月涨幅扩大至0.56%,均价达到了10628元/平方米。但值得注意的是,由于我国楼市区域发展不平衡,6月百城房价有53个城市的房价出现上涨的同时,一些三四线城市的库存处于高位,仍有46个城市的房价在下跌。上半年一线城市房价累计上涨5.17%,其中,深圳上半年累计涨幅高达12.25%,扮演了“领头羊”的角色。二线城市下跌了0.75%,三线城市的跌幅则达到了1.25%。

  牛凤瑞表示,一线城市房价之所以上涨较快,是因为城市规模较大,经济发展的态势比较好,外来人口相对较多,对房地产的需求较大,另外,经过几年的“限购”、“限贷”,需求暂时被压制,政策放松之后,必然会产生一个集中的释放期。相反,由于二三线城市政策相对宽松,供给量较大,尽管政策有所放松,下行趋势的改变还需要较长时间。

  业内预测:近年下半年楼市政策或将持续宽松

  谈及下半年楼市的政策走向,牛凤瑞表示还是倾向于信贷杠杆的调控作用,过度的行政手段不利于房地产市场的发展。对于未来的楼市调控,推进“营改增”进程、减税减息等经济杠杆是可以使用的。

  张大伟也谈到,后续房地产刺激政策还会有多种可能性,降准、降息还有调整的空间。他还谈到,从目前市场看,公积金的利率相当于商业贷款利率的68折,公积金政策是地方政府能够调整的最直接的购房工具,对于市场有直接的刺激影响。

  同策咨询研究部总监张宏伟则谈到,下半年鼓励住房消费会侧重于两方面,一是针对保障群体,由实物补贴或分配转为货币补贴,鼓励购买商品房;另一方面是将加大首套房、人才类购房的补贴力度。

  下半年房地产制度改革还将有哪些新的进展呢?某研究院分析称,取消限外令、推进不动产登记工作实施等长效机制工作可能将在下半年逐步展开,同时,以京津冀一体化为代表的区域协同发展也将会不断加快。
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>> 评论人:ioodiran IP:118.144.104.245 时间:2017年01月05日 06:15:35

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